Prognostications 2007

Cell Phone:

Apple’s new phone is not the iPhone; rather it is a very similar devise but with the camera pointed towards the person placing the call. In other words a video phone (probably to be named the iVid). All of the elements of the technology to do this phone are available at this time: iChat software; seamless transition from cellular to Blue Tooth to high speed wireless permits the video to travel on one carrier while audio travels on another; free internet access burgeoning throughout metropolitan areas makes the underlying network technology available to a large enough market share.

The market for the iVid will include those placing phone calls, gamers playing online MMORPG that include live in-person interactions for some parts of the game, and watching movies or a video blog on the “phone”. Video captured with the phone can be uploaded to a video blog. Conceivably, video could be uploaded to one’s .Mac account and or edited on the phone prior to the video blog being posted. (It is hoped that eventually manufacturers of camcorders will get the hint and make web enabled camcorders, which can upload video to a server so the camera is free of the bulky storage units they now use.)

OS:

Vista is about to be released, but there are subtle hints floating about that Apple will release a competing operating system for the generic Intel machine market (also known as, Windows machines). There are several reasons for this. Since Apple had a secret version, for some time, of OSX for the new MacIntel machines that it is manufacturing, it seems likely that a OSX version for the Intel gen-box has also been under development for some time. Also Apple has nothing to lose by releasing this OS and everything to gain.

Apple is very experienced at major OS transitions, OS9 to OSX, and now to OSX-MacIntel, so they know what they are doing. Apple could give this OS away for very little or no profit since they are sitting on a large cash surplus currently, it could actually be to their advantage to reduce this surplus. The timing is right, as the consumer is transitioning from Windows to another OS, they might shop around a bit and choose another OS that is available. OSX is proven and stable, and it runs on top of UNIX a longstanding successful operating system.

Apple is in the business of making beautiful and powerful computers and displays, these stand on their own. They are competitively priced and sell themselves. With more people using OSX (on the “Intel gen-box”), it would likely lead to more sales of Mac machines not less. This upcoming transition time could be the pivotal time that Apple has a chance to get a foothold into the large operating system market. Having a broad based OS would give Apple the leverage it needs to insure that Adobe, Microsoft, et al. manufacture software for OSX.

Avatars:

We have RSS readers, how about an RSS for Avatars. The average surfer probably has several avatars scattered over the web. It would be great if messages posted to an avatar could come straight to the desktop, rather than to email.

As net citizens, we are likely to post more of our lives onto the Internet through bogs, message forums, personal web pages (MySpace), and online RGPs. And conceivably, the avatar could become the idealized, or fictional character that a person would like to be seen as. This may lead to the question: is anybody real on the net, or will it matter? As people begin to live more and more of their lives online, the face of reality will shift a bit. And for some, their online persona may be more important than their “meat space” person.

Supercomputers:

Within a year or two, don’t be surprised to learn that there are supercomputers set up in the bedrooms of some teenagers. The question is then, what will they be doing with all this processing power? One interesting possibility that opens up is that they will be able to use this processing power to create wire frame figures with so many polygons that they approach the area of appearing to be visually real.

This will further enable the creation of avatars for those people who would like to have an appearance, perhaps other than they might ordinarily appear. Some of the more creative types may create a whole 3D world. And, given the new 3D imaging technology, using 3D glasses and digital projectors to create a lifelike image on the wall (or walls) of a room, there is quite a lot that a teenager could accomplish. Obviously, the concept of the home theatre takes on a whole new meaning.